#Key Points
Like poker, life is also a gmae of skill and luck.
Biggest things we care about – health, walth and relationships – these outcomes don’t only depend on the quality of our decision-making, but also the roll of life’s dice.
When we’re experiencing success, it’s important to take a moment to really ask ourselves how much of it is truly down to us, because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we’re winning.
Our intuitions are’t nearly as perfect as we’d like to believe. In reality, our gut is extremely vulunerable to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.
While we shouldn’t ignore our intuitions, we shouldn’t over priviledge them either.
Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size.
You gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it.